Impact of detection
In his new book, Michaud spotlights the fact that, for many people, E.T. contact in one form or another now seems likely, but at some unpredictable time in our future.

Still, is the often-cited societal grasp and gasp that “we’re not alone” an overblown axiom — perhaps akin to a puffed-up cosmological rapture of the deep? Could it be that the general public, in learning such news, might not be able to appreciate the magnitude of such a confirmation?

“While much of the public takes the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence for granted, the impact of a detection could vary considerably, depending on the scenario of detection,” Michaud said.

“In the case of a remote signal,” Michaud added, “my view is that it is unlikely to be a message … it would be contact without communication. If we find an artifact in or near our solar system, the impact could be much greater.”

Societal shockwave?
As to the societal shockwave of detecting E.T., there are those that suggest that the impact won’t vary too much. That’s because the scenario of detection is somewhat guaranteed to follow a pattern of unfolding actions.

In that camp is Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif.

First, someone, somewhere will hit upon a signal that — at least at first — appears to possibly be extraterrestrial, Shostak said. “Maybe that person is doing a SETI experiment, and maybe it’s the unexpected result of a more conventional astronomical observation. Perhaps it is even a hoax. But in any case, the story begins to get traction when the claim is made.”

What happens next is that the SETI community, and possibly others, would swing their telescopes in the direction of the suspected source, Shostak continued. They’d get busy trying to ascertain whether this is really E.T. on the line, or simply some unrecognized, at least by the finder, terrestrial interference — say a chatty communications satellite.

“It will be days and days before researchers would feel convinced from their observations that the signal is truly extraterrestrial,” Shostak emphasized. “That’s the amount of time it would take to reconfigure the instruments … to follow the source … and to establish its position, frequency drift and other parameters that are relevant to deciding ‘this is someone on another world.’”

Front-page news
Shostak said that while all this was going on, the media would be covering the story. “We know this from experience. There is no secrecy, and no chance of secrecy,” Shostak noted. Furthermore, the public will be interested.

“After all, this is a front-page story. But they won’t be rioting in the streets, or even scared, I would venture. Picking up a signal is not a danger. The aliens don’t know we’ve done it [detected their signal], and they’re highly likely to be 500 light-years away or more.”

Lastly, Shostak pointed out that, eventually, scientists will say that they are “99 percent certain” — or whatever — that they have found a signal coming from intelligence elsewhere in the cosmic neighborhood. 

“If it’s a radio signal, there probably won’t be any easily detectable information. That requires a different instrument,” Shostak said. “So it’s unlikely that we’ll have the ‘bits’ … we won’t know what they’re saying. Merely that they are on the air.”

As a result, the E.T. revelation will be the leading science story of the year. Some would say of the century, Shostak predicted. “The public will be enthused or otherwise, depending on how they view the news of another world with thinking beings. But just as Europe was changed — but did not panic — when the New World was found, so will we be changed, but philosophically, and at a relatively slow pace,” he concluded.

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