John Kerry examines today’s environmentalists

Far-reaching consequences
As unsettling as it is to have to endure increased summer temperatures and prolonged heat waves, the consequences of climate change are potentially far graver. As Dr. Holdren explains, “Climate is the ‘envelope’ within which all other environmental conditions and processes operate,” including precipitation, humidity, winds, ocean currents, sea level, and all of the biological and even economic processes affected by these. Distortions of this envelope can have potentially deadly and destructive ramifications and a significant impact on life on Earth, determining what we can grow where, where humans can live, the geography of disease, the distribution of species and pests, and so many other factors.

Drier conditions and reduced precipitation, if severe, can mean widespread drought and problems with growing crops. Our 1999–2002 national drought was one of the three most extensive of the past forty years and had sweeping and complex impacts on agriculture, forestry, water supply, tourism, and recreation. From coast to coast, streams and wells dried up, and river levels fell dramatically. People were told not to water their lawns, and public fountains in many urban centers were dry and dusty. The most dire result, however, was the resulting wildfires.

Just ask Toby Richards, a fire-management officer for Gila National Forest in New Mexico. In an October 2006 interview with Grist, an environmental news Web site, he told a reporter about a fire that had ignited in mid-winter above 9,000 feet. “We went up to a lookout and watched this fire burning in an area that was normally under six feet of snow,” he said. “Every once in a while you will get a lightning strike up that high that burns a tree or two in the winter, but this fire grew to a hundred acres.” Stories like this confirm what the science has been telling us about the fire season in the West — the season is lasting longer, it’s less predictable, and the fires are larger.

According to scientists at California’s Scripps Institution, drier conditions, caused in part by earlier snow runoff, are correlated to an increase in violent wildfires throughout the western region. Thomas Swetnam, a scientist who took part in the Scripps study, said in a statement, “I see this as one of the first big indicators of climate change impacts in the continental United States.” He added: “Lots of people think climate change and the ecological responses are 50 to 100 years away. But it’s not 50 to 100 years away — it’s happening now in forest ecosystems through fire.”

We are also experiencing more extreme weather events due to shifts in the climate system. In certain regions of the United States, extreme precipitation events, defined as rainstorms that produce more than 2 inches of rain in 48 hours, have been more frequent than in the past. For example, in New York City between 1950 and 1970, there was on average only one of these events each year. But they now occur an average of five times a year. Many coastal regions of the northeastern United States are experiencing twice as many extreme precipitation events today as in the 1950s. These heavy rainstorms create flooding, affect agriculture, and pose a critical challenge to the management of municipal storm runoff. And as we learned from the recent tragedy in New Orleans, hurricanes are becoming more intense, as warmer sea water contributes to more powerful storms. The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes globally has nearly doubled since the 1970s.

The Senators from North Dakota, Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad, can speak directly to the local impacts of changing climate. Farmers and ranchers in their home state have seen a dramatic cycle of natural disasters, including floods and frost in 2005 and severe drought in 2006. Millions of acres of cropland were either prevented from being planted or lost to the floods and heat. Drought also devastated livestock production in south central North Dakota. Is this a sign of what’s to come?

Excerpted from “This Moment on Earth” by John Kerry and Teresa Heinz Kerry. Copyright 2007 John Kerry and Teresa Heinz Kerry. Reprinted with the permission from the publisher, PublicAffairs.

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