‘Meet the Press’ transcript for May 13, 2007

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  Our issues this Sunday:  Our Meet the Candidates 2008 series continues, an exclusive interview with Republican John McCain.  He represented Arizona in the U.S. House for four years, for the past twenty years in the U.S. Senate where he now serves as the ranking member on the Armed Services Committee.  He ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for president in 2000.  This morning John McCain joins us for the full hour on MEET THE PRESS.

Senator McCain, welcome back to MEET THE PRESS.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN (R-AZ):  You didn't have to say unsuccessful; everybody knows that.

MR. RUSSERT:  Well, all part of the history.  Let's go right to it--Iraq.

SEN. McCAIN:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  We've been talking to voters across the country, our NBC/Wall Street Journal poll:  Is victory in Iraq still possible?  Thirty-six percent say victory's possible; 55 percent say victory not possible.  And look at this, senator.  Was the war--was the war--was it a mistake to send troops? Fifty- eight percent say yes, a mistake; 40 percent say no.  Are you surprised at those numbers?

SEN. McCAIN:  Not too.  Particularly on the issue of the second question, when we have experienced the enormous difficulties and sacrifice that have been part of this conflict that, certainly, you can understand that. Americans are frustrated, and they're saddened our failures in this conflict. My point is, and I'm sure we'll get into it, and that is we have a chance of success, and I don't think that a lot of Americans are as fully aware as they should be of the consequences of failure in Iraq.

MR. RUSSERT:  When you were speaking in 2005, the American Enterprise Institute, you said this...

SEN. McCAIN:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  "If we can't retain the support of the American people, we will have lost this war as soundly as if our forces were defeated on the battlefield." Haven't they lost the support of the American people?

SEN. McCAIN:  I think if we can show the American people some successes in Iraq and continue and expand on some of the successes we've already experienced in Anbar province and some neighborhoods in Baghdad, that I think Americans would--and if we do a better job, and that's people like me, of explaining the consequences of failure.

The consequences of failure, Tim, are that there would be chaos in the region. There's three--two million Sunni in Baghdad.  The Iranians would continue to increase their influence, the Saudis would have to help the Sunni, the Kurds would want independence, the Turks will never stand for it.  Some people say partition.  You'd have to partition bedrooms in Baghdad because Sunni and Shia are, are married.  This, this is a very, very difficult situation, but the consequences of failure, in my view, are unlike the Vietnam war where we could leave and come home and it was over, that these people will try to follow us home and the region will erupt to a point where we may have to come back or we will be compating-- combating what is now, to a large degree, al-Qaeda, although certainly other--many other factors of sectarian violence, in the region.

MR. RUSSERT:  In hindsight, was it a good idea to go into Iraq?

SEN. McCAIN:  You know, in hindsight, if we had exploited the initial success, which was shock and awe, and we succeeded, and we had done the right things after that, all of us would be applauding what we did.  We didn't.  It was terribly mismanaged.  It was--I went over there very shortly after the initial victory and came back convinced that we didn't have enough troops on the ground, we were making the wrong decisions, and that Secretary Rumsfeld was badly mismanaging the conflict.  And I spoke about it and complained for years.  So, if we had succeeded and done the right thing after the initial military success, then all of us would be very happy that one of the most terrible, cruel dictators in history was removed from power.  Now, because of our failures, obviously we have paid a very heavy price in American blood and treasure and a great sacrifice.

MR. RUSSERT:  So it was a good idea to go in?

SEN. McCAIN:  I think at the time, given the information we had.  Every intelligence agency in the world, not just U.S., believed that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.  He had acquired and used them before.  There was no doubt that he was going to acquire and use them if he could.  The sanctions were breaking down.  The Oil for Food scandal was in the billions of dollars.  And, of course, at the time, given the information we had--hindsight is 20/20.  If we'd have known we were going to experience the failures we experienced, obviously it would give us all pause.  Yet the information and the knowledge and the situation at the time, I think that it was certainly justified.

MR. RUSSERT:  The Pentagon's Quarterly Report, the director of the CIA, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, all have said that sectarian violence is the problem.  In fact, the--General Maples said that al-Qaeda accounts for only a small fraction of the insurgent violence.

SEN. McCAIN:  You know the...

MR. RUSSERT:  Who's our enemy?

SEN. McCAIN:  Well, first of all, General Petraeus, the general on the ground, does not agree with that.  Al-Qaeda is exploiting these sectarian differences.  They are trying to orchestrate attacks on both Sunni and Shia, but--in order to spark this and increase this sectarian violence that's going on.  Al-Qaeda is playing significantly.  Now, are there problems with sectarian violence?  Of course there is.  Is there other problems, such as in Anbar Province where Sunnis are now combatting al-Qaeda?  Are al-Qaeda being shoved out of Baghdad into areas outside of Baghdad?  Yes.  And are there problems in those areas?

Look, this is long and hard and difficult, and I've said it for a long time. And it's no last throes, it's no mission accomplished, it's no few dead-enders.  It's long and hard and tough.  We are experiencing some successes.  Do we have to experience more?  Yes.  But to do what the Democrats want to do, and that's set a date for withdrawal, even those who opposed the war from the beginning don't think that that would lead to anything but an enormously challenging situation as a result.

MR. RUSSERT:  But, senator, the Iraqi parliament, a majority of the Iraqi parliament, has signed a petition asking for a date certain for withdrawal of American troops.  If the Iraqi parliament wants it, a majority in the Congress want it...

SEN. McCAIN:  Mm-hmm.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...then why do you stand there and say, "No, you can't have it"?

SEN. McCAIN:  Because it's my job to give my best estimate to the American people, no matter what the political calculations may be, as to what's the best in our nation's national security interest.  Young men and women are risking their lives as we speak in, in, in Iraq.  And I know that they will be in greater harm's way if we withdraw from Iraq, as we keep debating over and over and over again.  And I know what's best, in my mind, in my experience, in my knowledge, in my inspiration, as to what's best for this country.  So political calculations such as polls, I understand that if the American people don't continue to support this effort that we will be forced to withdraw.  But it's also my obligation to tell the American people and my constituents in Arizona that I represent, what the consequences of failure will be; and I believe they will be catastrophic.

MR. RUSSERT:  But the duly elected people's bodies, the U.S. Congress and the Iraqi parliament, say they want a troop withdrawal.  That's more than a poll.  Isn't that the voice of the people?

SEN. McCAIN:  Well, the--as far as the Iraqi parliament is concerned, the Iraqi government obviously doesn't feel that way, their--the representatives in their government.  Second of all, there is some, a certain amount of domestic political calculations involved there in what the Iraqi, quote, "parliament" said.  The Iraqi parliament has their ability to, to voice their views, and I respect them.  And I, as I say, I--I'll repeat again, I understand how democracies work.  I saw it in Vietnam.  I saw it in Vietnam. And I saw it in Vietnam, the predictions, that everything would be a worker's paradise in, in Vietnam if we left.  And thousands were executed and millions went to re-education camps.  So I, I believe that, that the consequences of failure, and particularly sitting on the large reserves of oil they have, particularly considering the influence of al-Qaeda is concerned, you will see enormous destabilization in the region, and that's my duty.  That's my obligation.  It's not my privilege.  And political calculations should not enter into any information or position that I take on, on a, on an issue of national security.

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