'Meet the Press' transcript for Feb. 3, 2008

MR. TIM RUSSERT:  Our issues this Sunday, this is it.  In just 48 hours, Super Tuesday, more than 20 state primaries and caucuses across the country. The final four leading candidates:  for the Republicans, it's John McCain or Mitt Romney; for the Democrats, it's Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.  With us, he helped put Bill and Hillary Clinton in the White House in 1992: Democrat James Carville.  She worked for Bush 41, Bush 43 and Dick Cheney: Republican Mary Matalin.  He's worked for both John McCain and Mitt Romney: Republican Mike Murphy.  And he's worked for John Kerry, Al Gore and the man who just endorsed Barack Obama, Ted Kennedy:  Democrat Bob Shrum.  The race for the White House through the eyes of Carville, Matalin, Murphy and Shrum, only on MEET THE PRESS.

Welcome all, and do we have a lot to talk about.  Well, this is it.  It's Christmas, kids.

Offscreen Voice:  Oh, man.

MR. RUSSERT:  Let's start with the Democrats and start with the very latest polls.  And here's the roll call:  First, Alabama:  Obama, 44; Clinton, 37. Next, Arizona:  We have Clinton, 43; Obama, 41.  Georgia:  Obama, 47; Clinton, 41.  Illinois, hometown for Obama, 55, 24.  Missouri:  Clinton, 47; Obama 41. New Jersey, this is tightening:  Clinton, 46; Obama, 39.  New York, hometown Clinton, 54-to-38.  California, the Mason-Dixon has it 45-to-36.  The Field poll in California out today, 36-34.

Here's the landscape.  Those are the states that are at stake Tuesday for the Democrats.  The advantage for Hillary Clinton, we believe, are in the following:  Arizona, New York, New Jersey, California, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Massachusetts.  Advantage Obama:  Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota, and we have Alaska.  The toss-ups:  Arizona, Connecticut, Colorado, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico and Utah.

Mike Murphy, what does it all tell you?

MR. MIKE MURPHY:  It is a real race, and he's moving fast.  That's the problem.  I think if it were before the Kennedy endorsement, before some of this momentum, after her great comeback in New Hampshire, she kind of took things back.  Now, after Kennedy, in the last couple of days most of the polls show movement with Obama getting close to her.  And movement doesn't stop. Polls tend to be a day or two behind reality.  So we're going to have a mixed result.  It won't end the race, but it could really be a wash, which is a big, big win for Obama.  This is huge.  It's almost a national primary, and he's the candidate I think with energy.

MR. RUSSERT:  James Carville, if Hillary Clinton, because of her name recognition and longevity in American politics is considered the incumbent...

MR. JAMES CARVILLE:  Right.

MR. RUSSERT:  ...should she be concerned by the closeness of some of those states?

MR. CARVILLE:  Well, anybody--right now, everybody's concerned about everything.  Obama's not 100 percent, no.  So I mean, I get it, there's one sort of known and an unknown candidate here.  His--that, that, that is dissipating.  I think that what the Hillary Clinton campaign takes some, some hope in is the fact that the polling seems to have stabilized.  If anything, that she, she went up a little bit after the debate.  We'll wait and see if, if that's just a pause in Obama's momentum or there's something real there. But all of these--all of this tells us these states are awfully close.  It's going to depend on what's in these voters' minds.  I'll tell you, if, if, if "it's the economy, stupid" in their minds, she'll do better; if it's Camelot in their minds, Obama will do better.  We don't know.  We're going to know Tuesday night.  It's just amazing, stunning.

MR. RUSSERT:  Bob Shrum, Barack Obama raised $32 million this quarter, Hillary Clinton 10.  Does the money factor play into this?

MR. BOB SHRUM:  Oh, I think it plays into it as the process goes on longer and longer.  It could go on all the way to Pennsylvania.  Look, the conventional wisdom here is that is all going to break about 800 delegates, 800 delegates.  But sometimes these things break at the end, and Mike Murphy could be right.  It could also break the other way, by the way, it could break toward Hillary Clinton because the real question is, with his momentum, are the lines going to cross?  Is there a moment when she's in the position which is very perilous, I believe, in any campaign, of trying to hold on to what she has.  He's in the position of trying to move forward.

And I--by the way, I believe everybody misreads that debate.  I don't think that debate was about the issues or who was slightly better than anybody else. I think it was like the Kennedy-Nixon debate in 1960.  People looked at it, and they made a decision because there was a stature gap, because she has more experience and they wanted to see whether he could sit on that stage with her. And he at least did that, at least did that well, and in that sense I think it helped him a lot.

MR. RUSSERT:  Could they envision either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama sitting at the desk in the Oval Office?

MR. SHRUM:  I believe they could.

MR. RUSSERT:  Mary.

MS. MARY MATALIN:  Well, that's the point.  See, what Obama doesn't have is he does have 100 percent ID now, but he doesn't have love in the states.  He doesn't have machinery.  Where he has done best and beat her, exceeded her, was where he had campaigned for a long time.  There's been many pieces in the paper about how he's running against the clock now.  She is a machine, and the machine is going to matter in these proportional states.  You hate to reference tactics here with all this lofty talk as it changes the choice, but some of these Democrats are actually looking to the fall, past the whole change hoo-ha, and going to the choice who sits up better not just in the Oval Office, who sits up better against the Republicans.  And I think they think that Hillary is a tougher candidate.

MR. SHRUM:  Oh, Mary has endorsed Hillary.

MS. MATALIN:  No.

MR. SHRUM:  That is not a favor to Hillary.  Let me tell you, that was the one thing she didn't want this weekend.

MR. MURPHY:  One poll--in all this forest of polls in a year where we've learned to be a little worried about these last-minute polls, there's one that if I were working for Hillary Clinton would scare the heck out of me, and that's California, because I've seen a private poll, similar numbers, about two points, and he's been picking up almost a half point to a point a day. And everything happens first in California, and that's a good bellwether.  If it's bad there, it's going to be bad everywhere.

MR. RUSSERT:  What would happen if Hillary Clinton lost California?

MR. CARVILLE:  It would be bad.  It would be really bad.

MR. RUSSERT:  Really bad.

MR. CARVILLE:  Yeah, it really would.  I just know.  I'm for her, I love her to death, I think she would be a great president, but losing in--I mean, I guess if she carried a bunch of other states, generally what happens--and I agree with Bob--generally what happens is, is that it breaks in favor of one candidate or the other on Election Day.

The other thing I would say, I don't know a political professional who would place any stalk in a 36-34 poll.  There is just not that big...

MR. SHRUM:  Right.

MR. MURPHY:  Right, right.

MR. CARVILLE:  ...of undecideds in California.  I promise you that.  Now, I don't want to have a Field poll down on me, but there's not a political professional in the world that wouldn't automatically discount a 36-34 poll right now.

MR. RUSSERT:  Forty-eight hours before an election.

MR. CARVILLE:  That, that, that is not--that is not an accurate poll. There's something wrong in the reporting of the way...

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