Time for striking writers to rethink game plan

The moment of truth has arrived for those TV writers walking the picket lines for the past three months, pounding the pavement and tossing their laptops in hopes of trying to break the backs of the networks.

Their strategy was to stop writing new episodes of scripted shows, which would leave the prime-time lineups bare. The networks would then be forced to air a slew of offensive and ridiculous reality shows that would repulse the TV-viewing public. Ratings would fall flat, or at least flatter than usual.

That, in turn, would force the struggling networks to succumb to the guild's demands. Once the walkout was over, fresh episodes of "Desperate Housewives," "The Office" and "How I Met Your Mother" would be back on the air quickly, and life in the television business could return to normal.

Good thinking, but it hasn't exactly turned out that way — not by a long shot. When "American Gladiators" doubles the ratings of a brilliant new episode of "Friday Night Lights," you know things have gone topsy-turvy and it's time to rethink the game plan.

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As a matter of fact, NBC's Monday night lineup is the best night the network has had in years, dominating the competition with a double bill of "American Gladiators" (11 million viewers) and "Deal or No Deal" (17 million viewers).

(Msnbc.com is a joint venture between Microsoft and NBC Universal.)

So why should the bosses over there be in any great rush to settle with the WGA?

Slideshow: Hollywood silenced In-studio reality shows are, for the most part, less expensive to produce than a half-hour sitcom, and now more people are tuning in. And a force majeure clause in the contract between striking writers and the networks states writers’ production deals can be terminated in the case of a strike (and many have been, even further cutting costs). Because of this, NBC isn’t suffering that much because of the shutdown in production.

The network, trying to cash in on this non-scripted momentum for as long as possible, has a bunch of reality coming down the pike, ready to fill time slots that used to be occupied by the likes of "The Office," "Heroes" and "Chuck."

Get ready for another round of "Celebrity Apprentice" next year, and a just-announced pair of unscripted shows: the Dan Cortese-hosted "My Dad Is Better Than Your Dad," which will premiere on Feb. 18, and the Dennis Miller-hosted "Amnesia," debuting Feb. 22.

Nothing new
This reality infusion isn't a new trend, of course. "American Idol" has been the ratings giant following Kelly Clarkson's rise to fame in season one. And even though "Idol's" numbers are down from last year and a case can be made that, Nielsen-wise, the show has already peaked, the writers find themselves in a bad spot right now.

With "Idol" back, FOX, like NBC, is in the catbird seat. But now the network has another bullet in the chamber — the gun aimed directly at the heads of the WGA — in "The Moment of Truth."

Sure, any show that comes on right after "Idol" is going to get a lot of sampling, but even FOX had to be surprised at just how many tuned in on "Truth's" opening week. An astonishing 27 million viewers watched as contestants squirmed and saw their marriages and relationships peeled away like a Band-Aid being ever-so-slowly ripped off the skin. (And for what? A chance to make a few bucks? Are our lives now nothing more than fodder for game shows?)

Naturally, after the initial hype faded, the numbers went down in week two, but it's still a bonafide hit for FOX, which just ordered 13 more episodes.

Slideshow: Celebrity Sightings CBS is cranking up its reality lineup as well. It just ordered the 17th and 18th editions of "Survivor" for next season. Over at ABC, "Dance War" is drawing a healthy number of viewers, and with the presidential race in full swing, the news division scheduled analysis of Feb. 5 primaries for three hours. And get ready for another appearance by Barbara Walters when she anchors "The Royal Family" with a behind-the-scenes look at England's monarchy.

Exceptions to the rule
All of this influx of reality doesn't mean that scripted television has gone the way of the dinosaur. FOX recently launched "The Sarah Connor Chronicles" to a very healthy viewership, and every time they're able to air an original episode of "House," viewer turnout is huge.

And in one of the most anticipated premieres of this or any season, "Lost" returned last week   to good — if not great — numbers, following an eight-month hiatus where it was revealed that Jack and Kate had gotten off the island. Now that even more has been revealed , fans should stay glued in.

But right now, these shows are the exceptions rather than the rule. Writers are terrific at developing characters, managing expanding plotlines and meeting deadlines — at least, most of them are — but they might want to sit down in an economics class at UCLA and try to get their heads around why their strike doesn't seem to be bringing the networks to their knees.

While the best TV scribes have never "written down" to the level of an audience, those viewers certainly don't have the same respect for writers. Sure, people will watch and appreciate "Lost" and "House," but it looks like they'll also stare at a dog chasing its tail for 30 minutes, or whatever the networks' equivalent is to that.

There's still hope for the writers to get everything they want, but the longer they stay out on strike, the more leverage they lose. The networks have figured out it can make a nice buck with or without scripted shows.

And if the writers are going to make a new play for impact, they better act fast. The Associated Press reported that a person close to the negotiations revealed over the weekend that a breakthrough in contract talks was reached between the studios and writers, and may lead to a deal as early as this week.

Viewers are fickle people, and now that they've latched on to reality shows that weren't around when the walkout began, they might not let them go so fast.

Stuart Levine is an assistant managing editor at Variety. He can be reached at stuart.levine@variety.com.