The top 24. The big double-dozen. The first serious goal of any "American Idol" contestant. Reaching the Maximum Kiefer means that a singer will finally get the chance to strut his or her stuff not only on stage, but in front of the viewing (and voting) audience.

But some shouldn't get too comfortable. And that's at least partly by design. The semifinalists represent the judges’ chosen cast of characters who will make the audience cheer, boo and generally pay attention for the next three months. In so doing, Randy, Paula and Simon want to set up an endgame they can live with.

That's not to suggest that "Idol" has pre-chosen a winner. But some contestants make it this far only to be cannon fodder, as opposed to the judges' pets. In the interest of saving fans heartache down the line, here's a guide to who "Idol" seems to want to succeed and who’s destined for failure.

Cannon fodder
Excuse me while I address the hopefuls briefly.

How's it going, Jason Castro? What about you, Garrett Haley? Everything all right, Luke Menard and Jason Yeager? Look. I'm sure you're fine, upstanding gentlemen, talented, hardworking and honest. But here's the thing: I don't know you. At all. The first time "Idol" bothered to put you on my television screen was when you sat in that chair and the judges told you that you made it.

And that, if you didn't know, is the clearest indication that you're cannon fodder. For weeks, "Idol" fans have been buzzing about the folks they've seen in the audition episodes, picking favorites and in some cases starting fan sites.

And guess what? None of that has been for you. Success on "Idol" has always been as much about solidifying your base as about winning fans over from week to week, and every other person in the top 24 has a several-week head start on you.

It can be overcome. Latoya London and Bo Bice made it all the way to fourth place and runner-up, respectively, after popping up in the semis without any advance warning. And Kelly Clarkson, well, you know what happened to her.

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But know that you have an uphill battle. That goes double for you, Colton Berry. Sure, you benefited from a tiny glimpse in the Hollywood rounds, but one day's advance notice isn't much. Not only that, you got the indignity of grabbing the final spot over well-liked Oklahoma dork Kyle Ensley, with Simon disagreeing quite vocally with the decision. That’s a big hint that you shouldn't unpack your bags.

Anyway, sorry I had to talk directly to the contestants, but at least I didn't tell them that I hate them to their faces. Simon can't say the same, as he made it clear which of this season's three Davids is cannon fodder when he told David Hernandez more or less exactly that.

As for the women, "Idol" rather shockingly broke with tradition by actually showing everyone's audition. But that was the one and only time we ever saw vocal mimic Kady Malloy, who the judges passed through to Hollywood with a warning not to rely too much on impersonation. Similarly, Alexandrea Lushington, Amy Davis and Alaina Whitaker were all moved to the semis with cursory three-second passes before moving on to the next person.

And it seems like Kristy Lee Cook is getting the same treatment Sundance Head received last year: a star-making audition and modestly compelling backstory followed by a quick, sad flameout. The show certainly seems to have given up on her, showing her struggling in Hollywood and only squeaking through by singing "Amazing Grace" — again — when she was clearly in trouble.

Judges' pets
As for the judges' pets, many of them — Ramiele Malubay, Amanda Overmyer, Robbie Carrico, David Cook, Michael Johns, Danny Noriega and Chikezie Eze — are simply inverses of the first category of cannon fodder: The show has been careful to keep them visible throughout the entire process. And even when they stumbled, the show didn't linger on it.

That's definitely been the case with Brooke White. Like Carrico, she's been a constant presence not only on the show, but in the commercials. She apparently lost her place during one of her Hollywood performances, but "Idol" took pains to edit that part out, showing only her kicking ass on Carole King's "Beautiful."

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When they showed the screwup, it was milked for artificial tension just before White was passed through to the top 24. Add to that an identifiable personality (sweetheart childcare professional who's never seen an R-rated movie) and a hint of actual musical substance (choice of song and playing her own keyboards), and it looks like the show just wants to brush her hair all day.

Joanne Borgella may appear to be cannon fodder since she was given the last women's spot, always a dangerous position to be in. The show's history of eliminations is littered with singers who appeared to move on from the previous round at the expense of someone better known or liked.

But neither Borgella nor ultimate rival Cardin McKinney were portrayed as an odds-on favorite. It also didn't hurt that both singers were gracious in victory and defeat, understanding the way things were and that neither one would die as a result.

As a plus-sized model looking for a singing career in an industry never particularly kind to larger women, Borgella also benefited from another indication of being a favorite of "Idol" (especially in this season of the sob story): triumph over adversity. That's good news for Syesha Mercado (who lost her voice in Hollywood), David Archuleta (who’s still recovering from paralyzed vocal cords) and Asia'h Epperson (her father died two days before her initial audition).

But in the self-obsessed world of "Idol," perhaps the biggest adversity is failing to get on "Idol" itself, which is great news for Carly Smithson. The tattooed Irishwoman lost her chance two years ago due to visa problems, and the show isn't missing the opportunity to present her trip to the voting rounds as vindication after dreams deferred.

Thanks to the discovery of her earlier, disastrous major-label career (more than $2 million were reportedly spent promoting an album that sold fewer than 400 copies), Smithson's already the season's most controversial contestant. Debates are raging on the Internet about whether she should even be permitted to compete.

And that drama may be what "Idol" loves most of all.

Marc Hirsh is a writer in Somerville, Mass.

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