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'Meet the Press' transcript for April 20, 2008
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 Netcast April 20: Two days before the Pa. presidential primary, we hosted an exclusive debate: Obama's Chief Strategist David Axelrod squared off against Clinton's new chief strategist Geoff Garin. Then, we had a political roundtable with David Brooks of the New York Times, E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post & Michele Norris of NPR. |
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MR. BROOKS: When you asked the question, I’m amazed, I think like you, maybe, that it didn’t become a bigger issue. Because what it says, I think, to a lot of Americans, two Arab countries or two Middle Eastern countries get in a war and we’re going to get in the middle of it? I think post Iraq, this is the last place Americans want to be. It’s a potentially wide-open thing to say. I don’t know why she would’ve said it, what policy thinking behind it was. It seems to me extremely perilous.
MS. NORRIS: I doesn’t seem like it post Iraq.
MR. RUSSERT: Were you surprised?
MR. DIONNE: Yes.
MS. NORRIS: I mean, we would probably still be engaged in Iraq when this kind of dilemma would present itself.
MR. DIONNE: You know, and the term massive retaliation is a pretty strong term that she used in the course of that debate. But I want to go back to this polling business in Pennsylvania. You know, it seems to me, when you look at these numbers right now, the most likely outcome is that she’s got a five point lead, he probably picks up three or four points, maybe two or three points on organization. This is form a very smart Democrat I talked to yesterday when I was up there. But she—those undecideds look an awful like her people, and they seem if you push them that they’re going to go to her. So if you sort of just do it on the numbers, she probably should win a healthy victory. The real question is is there a backlash against traditional politics? Is there an anti-media backlash after that debate? You never lose running against the media. And then Michele makes the right point, I think, about the new voters. Do they switch this mix at all? So, conventionally, she ought to win that by a pretty decent margin.
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MR. RUSSERT: But the discussion is interesting. If she wins 55-45 and has a net gain of eight or nine delegates or a net gain in the cumulative popular vote of 200,000, I asked Geoff Garin how does she get to a point at the end of this process where she can say to the superdelegates, “Nominate me. I am behind in elected delegates, I am behind in cumulative popular vote, and I have lost more contests than I have won, but I’m still a better and stronger candidate.” How does that happen?
MS. NORRIS: It’s a, it’s a very difficult argument to make. It becomes even more difficult even if she wins that by 10, 15, 19 point margin, there are 19 districts in Pennsylvania and it could be a case similar to Texas where she actually wins the popular vote, but doesn’t carry, you know, all the delegates. Or it can be, you know, a case where the margin of delegates is so small that it’s hard for her to claim an outright victory.
MR. DIONNE: I think it’s very hard for her to make a case for a nomination unless at the end of this process, by a count, everybody can agree upon she’s ahead in the popular vote. If she actually ended up ahead in the popular vote, she would have a moral claim. But the Clinton people are now talking about are electoral votes. God forbid we’re back to Florida in more ways than one with them saying, “Look, she wins the big states, and that’s what you’ve got to think about.” But the risk of demobilizing African-Americans, core of the Democratic Party, demobilizing young people who have flocked to Obama, I think that, too, is very much on the minds of these superdelegates.
MS. NORRIS: That’s why...
MR. BROOKS: There are, there are more Clinton voters who say they won’t for Obama—vote for Obama than there are Obama voters who won’t vote for Clinton. And, to me, that’s the big story.
MR. DIONNE: Yeah.
MR. BROOKS: The—I think Obama’s going to get the nomination. I think it’s a near certainty. But in the fall, there really are, are dangerous prospects for the Democrats. The Democrats generically are up by 13 points. But when you look how Obama does against McCain in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, he’s behind. Those are the key states. He’s only tied in states like New Jersey. And I think that’s a result of what we’ve seen in the last three months, and the ugliness of it.
MS. NORRIS: You know, may I just say that part of the issue, also, in the fall is down ticket. I mean, a lot of the undecided superdelegates right now are House freshmen who, you know, want to make sure that they back the right horse, and were elected in very tight races and they don’t want to make a decision right now. I mean, the three—look ahead to Indiana, the three House freshman there, undeclared right now, undecided. And in, in a, in a close race, if the Clinton voters don’t show up, don’t support the nominee, if it is Barack Obama, or vice-versa, and they back the wrong candidate, you know, it’s, it’s tough sledding for them.
MR. RUSSERT: Interesting choice for the superdelegates. Hillary Clinton acknowledging, “I have a lot of baggage.” I never heard a candidate say that.
MS. NORRIS: And he didn’t say anything when she said it.
MR. RUSSERT: And it, and it’s been rummaged through, and she said, “I can withstand anything that the Republicans throw at me.” Obama saying, “We have to rise above this. We have to have politics of hope. We have to get rid of the politics of the past and find a way to come together and find common ground.” It’s really a choice for the Democratic Party as to who they want to send into battle against the Republican candidate.
MR. DIONNE: And one of the fascinating things about this is that this choice defies all the past choices. This is not, despite that MoveOn comment, about ideology. Ideology is scrambled. In Pennsylvania, Governor Ed Rendell, supporting Clinton, ran against Bob Casey, supporting Obama, in a primary for governor. Rendell, pro-choke; Casey, pro-life. The parts of the state that are most pro-Obama actually voted for Ed Rendell. The parts of the state that actually voted for Casey are most pro-Clinton. So this is not a choice on any traditional ground you’ve seen. It is very much a choice about style. And these primaries have become like a census. If, you know, the state is this percentage African-American or that percentage old, you can predict pretty much how it’s going to come out.
MR. BROOKS: And the age, there’s like a part of the country that’s the party of baggage, senior people. “I got some baggage, fine. I’m fine with people who have baggage, I’ll vote for Hillary.” Younger people, “No baggage, I’m the no baggage party.” So it’s like checking in at the airport, it’s whether you got baggage or not.
MR. RUSSERT: Suitcases vs...
MS. NORRIS: Carry on.
MR. DIONNE: Backpacks.
MR. RUSSERT: ...backpacks, right?
MR. BROOKS: Yeah. We’ve got our own new insufferable phrase.
MR. RUSSERT: This, this is it.
When does this end?
MS. NORRIS: Oh, boy. I don’t make predictions, but, you know, I, I—you heard from Geoff Garin, they, they plan to stay at it. They’re in it to win it, they’re not talking about stepping down anytime soon. I mean, you—it could well go all the way through June. If you talk to her inner circle, they say that they’re looking toward the convention and they plan to slog on and take this all the way to Denver.
MR. RUSSERT: And you have—if she wins Pennsylvania’ if he wins North Carolina; she squeaks out, she squeaks out Indiana; she wins Kentucky, West Virginia; he wins Oregon, Montana, South Dakota; she wins Puerto Rico; it doesn’t change the overall delegate count or the popular vote. Even if you counted Florida. She—Florida, where Hillary Clinton—it doesn’t count in the delegate count, but gave her that popular vote, she still doesn’t catch up to the popular vote.
MS. NORRIS: She has a secret weapon, though. I mean, a million years ago, Harold Ickes helped put together the rules that the Rules Committee and the Credentials Committee will actually follow if this does come down to a floor fight. So if there’s anybody who knows where the traps are, where the sort of secret rotating bookcase is, you know, that he would be the person who would know how to...
MR. DIONNE: Harold Ickes was once described as a nuclear weapon by one of his political foes. You know, I think Obama has been—was close to closing this down several times, and each time he didn’t quite get that breakthrough. If he’d beaten her in Texas, he could have done it. If he were to beat her in Pennsylvania...
MR. RUSSERT: Or New Hampshire.
MR. DIONNE: Or New Hampshire. If he were to beat her in Pennsylvania, long-shot right now, that would end it. I think if he—I don’t think the Democrats want to go all the way to the convention. Clinton would like to. She feels almost a moral obligation, from what people tell me, because she thinks Obama can’t win. But I don’t think that’s where the party wants to go.
MR. RUSSERT: “Sold Out: Reclaiming Faith in Politics,” your book, E.J. Dionne. Ten seconds on the pope.
MR. DIONNE: I thought it was very striking that he did not choose to enter our political fray. He challenged left and right alike. And I think he understood that his job—one of his main jobs was to reassure American Catholics who were really disheartened, to say the least, by the pedophilia scandal. And that was where his emphasis lay.
MR. RUSSERT: Want equal time, Brother Brooks?
MR. BROOKS: No, it was just great to see somebody who’s not running for office.
MR. DIONNE: And you didn’t hedge because of the primaries.
MR. RUSSERT: And he talked about hope, Michele.
MS. NORRIS: Yes, he did. He did talk about hope.
MR. RUSSERT: We’ll be right back.
MR. RUSSERT: All day coverage Tuesday, the Pennsylvania primary. That’s all for today. We’ll be back next week. If it’s Sunday, it’s MEET THE PRESS.
How about those Caps? In Pennsylvania tomorrow night. Beat the Flyers!
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