OPINION

By Mike DeCourcy

updated 5:24 p.m. ET June 18, 2008

Mike DeCourcy

The North Carolina Tar Heels scored 3,454 points during the 2007-08 basketball season. That is a bucketful of points. As you may know, Kansas and Memphis both played one more game, and each would have needed two or three more to come close to Carolina's output.

This particular number became extremely relevant Monday with the revelation that all three UNC players who filed for NBA draft early entry — point guard Ty Lawson, shooting guard Wayne Ellington and versatile reserve Danny Green — removed their names from the draft list. They are back in college basketball, which means their team will return 92 percent of the scoring from last season.

That's a lot of a lot.

In one afternoon, with one press release, the entire nature of the 2008-09 season changed. It now will be about everybody trying to catch North Carolina. That is not to say that no one else will have a chance to win the NCAA championship, but unless/until the Tar Heels are eliminated it will be theirs to lose.

A year ago, we had four teams returning nearly every important player from 30-win teams that reached the Elite Eight or beyond. They were: UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas.

And of course, those teams wound up the season in the Final Four.

This year, Carolina is the only team in that category. Memphis lost stars Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose to early entry. Kansas lost guard Mario Chalmers and forwards Brandon Rush and Darrell Arthur. UCLA lost center Kevin Love, power forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and athletic guard Russell Westbrook. Texas lost All-American point guard D.J. Augustin. Xavier will be without three senior starters.

And though there will be teams improved by adding particular freshmen, there is no freshman who will have the revolutionary impact on a team such as Rose had for Memphis, Love for UCLA, or that Greg Oden and Mike Conley did for Ohio State two seasons ago.

Thus, with the Tar Heels adding three capable recruits who can deepen the rotation, it is possible they will enter the coming season with the greatest on-paper disparity between any team and its closest competition since the 1993-94 Heels returned all but one essential player from an NCAA champion and added future top-five picks Jerry Stackhouse and Rasheed Wallace as freshmen.

Of course, that team lost in the NCAA second round.

So the trick for these Heels will be finding the formula that will sustain them through six NCAA Tournament games in the way that Kansas did this season, the way Florida did the previous two years.

What did they have that Carolina hasn't shown?

Defense
KU's opponents shot 37.9 percent from the field in 2007-08. Florida's shot 40.7 percent in 2006-07. Carolina's shot 42.6 percent.

Shot-blocking
KU blocked 235 shots in 40 games. Florida blocked 194 in 40 games. Carolina blocked 174 in 39 games.

Long-distance shooting
KU shot 39.7 percent from 3-point range. Florida shot 40.9 percent. Carolina shot 37.2 percent.

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Those are elements that can make the difference between a team capable of winning a championship, which Carolina certainly was last season, and a team that gets it done. The ability to lock down on defense sets a tone. The shot-blocking erases mistakes and makes it hard for elite opponents to attack the goal. The 3-point shooting makes a huge difference at the close of a game.

Ask Sherron Collins or Mario Chalmers.

Carolina has the chance to improve at all these areas, because it has all the same players. The college game has been warned: North Carolina is the team to beat, and it will not be easy.

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