Tony DeMarco

If you don’t think the playoff picture remains a fluid one as the season’s halfway point approaches, consider that on this date a year ago, the division leaders in the National League were the New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres.

By Oct. 2, all three were on the outside looking in, the first two after inglorious collapses, the latter after a dramatic wild-card play-in game loss in Colorado.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies found themselves in third place last June 19, the Chicago Cubs were five games under .500, and the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies were in third and fourth place, respectively, in the NL West, although both over .500.

All of which is to say that teams trying to figure out if they are buyers or sellers can’t be blamed for being patient and letting things play out a bit longer as we sit six weeks from the non-waivers trade deadline.

Everybody other than the Seattle Mariners, that is. With general manager Bill Bavasi and manager John McLaren gone, and first baseman Richie Sexson rumored to be on the way out, the M’s already are in full-scale retool mode. Really, other than Ichiro, Felix Hernandez and Jeff Clement, anybody could go, led by left-hander Eric Bedard, who should bring the most in return.

Otherwise, the fates of potential key trade-deadline figures such as C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Roy Oswalt, Mark Teixeira, Rich Harden, Carlos Lee, Xavier Nady, Joe Blanton and other to-be-named-laters will be on hold for a bit longer.

There is no bigger potential playoff-impacting figure — literally and figuratively — than Sabathia. But for now, the Cleveland Indians continue to say they are focusing on staying in the AL Central race.

Then again, there is little chance they can re-sign Sabathia this winter, and they currently are treading water in the standings during the extended absences of Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook. In fact, here’s an eye-opener for you: In a 10-2 loss Tuesday in Colorado, the middle three hitters in their order were Ben Francisco, Ryan Garko and Shin-Soo Choo.

There are more than a few potential landing spots for Sabathia — from long-term to rent-a-player — led by the Cubs, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. So barring an unlikely Indians hot streak, signs are pointing to a pre-deadline deal.

The last-place Toronto Blue Jays, losers of seven of their last 10, can’t be hopeful of a bounce back in the tougher-than-expected AL East. Throw in the fact that Burnett can opt out of the final two years and $24 million left on his deal with Toronto, and things are in place for him to go elsewhere. And oh by the way, Burnett recently told a Chicago-based beat writer that he would welcome a trade to the Cubs.

The Cubs will have to decide whether center field or starting pitcher is their biggest need. Jim Edmonds is doing an acceptable job in center for now (but Randy Winn, Coco Crisp and Scott Podsednik could be options down the road), and there is the thought within the organization that adding a starter will be the bigger playoff necessity. Rich Hill and Matt Murton could be the chips in either case.

You know manager Lou Piniella will push for something to happen, so expect the Cubs to pull the trigger on a deal, perhaps two, in what appears to be their best chance in years for a pennant.

The Dodgers also have to be considering a major move in light of their sub-.500 record, Brad Penny’s shoulder injury, Joe Torre’s win-now mentality and Ned Colletti’s need for a positive-impact move. They could put together a package for Sabathia or any other top pitcher, and have the financial ability to hang onto him long-term.

It’s hard to imagine the Atlanta Braves deciding by late-July that they don’t have enough to stay in the NL playoff chase, but a multitude of pitching injuries may force them to do so. That most likely would mean Teixeira’s departure — and a deal involving some young starting pitching coming in return.

It’s also hard to picture the Oakland A’s dealing the fragile-but-brilliant-when-healthy Harden (who may be the best pitcher in the AL right now), or Blanton in light of their surprising playoff-contending season to date.

But general manager Billy Beane never has shied away from a deal that would help the organization longer-term as opposed to short-term, and the trades he has made since last season have set up a potentially bright future in the East bay.

The Houston Astros — losers of eight in a row and 15 of 18 — could be another trade-deadline player next month. Slowly, the realization that there isn’t enough pitching to contend is taking root, and the failure of J.R. Towles points to a lack of talent coming through the system.

Both of those issues need to be addressed for the franchise’s longer-term health, and 60 percent of an $89 million payroll is tied up in Oswalt, Lee, Miguel Tejada and Lance Berkman, the latter of whom isn’t going anywhere.

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