OPINION

By Mike DeCourcy

updated 11:26 p.m. ET June 23, 2008

Mike DeCourcy

If you haven't already handed the 2009 NCAA championship trophy to North Carolina, you're just not quick enough for this game.

The moment Roy Williams heard that Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington and Danny Green all had decided to defer their NBA dreams for another year, the Tar Heels became an overwhelming preseason favorite. With those guys sticking around, and with reigning national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough not even flirting with the pros, this team has back nearly 92 percent of an offense that generated 88.6 points per game.

Who can screw that up?

Well, all these teams will try:

Three contenders
Connecticut. Remember when Duke had it all, a team so loaded with talent and depth that a national championship seemed inevitable? Remember who ruined it? (Talking 1999 here, but you can refer to 2004 if you like.) The Devils of Brand, Battier and Langdon fell to a less celebrated — but equally accomplished — UConn team in the NCAA title game. Think the Huskies can't do it again? If 7-3 center Hasheem Thabeet makes half the improvement he did last summer, Carolina will have plenty of reasons to worry.

Arizona. For the Wildcats, this has become the Me Decade. They have raised selfish basketball to an art form. So who believes the culture of a program can change overnight? Well, surely you remember the Florida Gators, who said goodbye to gunners Anthony Roberson and Matt Walsh and replaced them with the crew that won two titles. Arizona has waved on players such as Marcus Williams, Salim Stoudamire and Chris Rodgers and is ready to embrace a better way. The Wildcats' biggest "addition" is the return of gifted forward Chase Budinger from his NBA draft excursion, but there also is Brandon Jennings, a gifted freshman guard. Assistant coach Mike Dunlap can provide a new voice, like Larry Shyatt did with the Gators.

Louisville. What do these three teams have in common? They've already beaten the most daunting competition they'll face: the NBA draft. The Cardinals held on to versatile forward Earl Clark, who can become a first-team All-American if he learns how to apply his many skills against opponents that generally can defuse only one or two at a time.

Three sleepers
Pitt. Some consider the Panthers national title contenders, but the lack of dead-certain NBA talent makes them a better fit in this category. Winning four straight Big East Tournament games requires a vast reservoir of toughness; we know they have that. Winning six NCAA games in a row requires a level of firepower that might be beyond their reach. One thing's certain: Pitt will not go down without a battle.

Texas. The Longhorns have so much talent, size and depth that it feels odd to put them in this category. But many believe they cannot advance without All-American point guard D.J. Augustin. Didn't everyone say the same when Kevin Durant checked out?

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Wake Forest. Adding three big freshmen to a team with a loaded perimeter will restore the Deacons to the ACC elite. They're probably a year away, but the lure of the draft means never being able to "wait 'til next year" with confidence.

Three pretenders
Notre Dame. This should be a wonderful team, flush with tenacity and offensive skill. The Irish will be strong Big East contenders, which is saying something. But they are not built to win six consecutive tournament games. The absence of a shot blocker makes it too easy for opponents to attack the goal.

Arizona State. This team is going places — but not to the top of the Final Four ladder. The Sun Devils feature one of the best college guards in James Harden. But only twice in the past 25 years has a team missed the tournament one year and recovered to win an NCAA championship the next: Louisville in 1985 and Syracuse in 2003. The Cardinals added Pervis Ellison in '85. Syracuse added Carmelo Anthony in '03. The Sun Devils brought in enough money to start building a new practice gym. It's not the same.

Duke. The Blue Devils are going to make life as tough as they can for the Heels. This year's Carolina-Duke games are going to be the kind of breathtaking classics that have made their rivalry among the best in American sports. But unless they've got Lance Thomas hooked up to an IV drip of Muscle Milk, the Devils do not have the frontcourt power to take them all the way.

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