OPINION

By Mike DeCourcy

updated 8:00 p.m. ET Aug. 2, 2008

Mike DeCourcy

Whether or not it turns out to be correct, it's hard to argue with the notion that picking North Carolina to win the 2009 NCAA championship is boring. It's like predicting the Patriots will win the Super Bowl, or Southern Cal football to take the Pac-10.

The Tar Heels enter the season with 92 percent of big-time college basketball's most prolific offense returning. They've got the reigning national player of the year (Tyler Hansbrough) and a coach with a national title and six Final Fours on his resume (Roy Williams).

This is the time when the college basketball yearbooks that appear on newsstands in the fall--including the one you need most, Sporting News College Basketball--begin putting together their stories and predictions. So this is a decision we'll have to make soon.

There aren't many good reasons not to pick the Heels. One is that it lacks a sense of adventure. Another is that what seems obvious in the preseason doesn't always come to fruition in the end. But the very best is this: If not Carolina, then who?

Which of these teams genuinely appears capable of overcoming the Heels?

Connecticut? The Huskies got back their two most important players, guard A.J. Price and center Hasheem Thabeet. Price is a creative scorer and playmaker, though he is recovering from major knee surgery. Thabeet, who stands 7-3, has improved as much in two seasons of college basketball as any player in memory. A continued advance would make him the most potent defensive force in college.

However, UConn still is not a great perimeter shooting team. Its best deep threats batted below .370 last season from 3-point range. This team will have to improve dramatically on offense. And the loss of small forward Stanley Robinson, even if it's just for half a season, should not be overlooked. He only flirted with his potential last year but still is a veteran player with great athleticism.

UCLA? The Bruins have made three consecutive Final Fours, and point guard Darren Collison and power forward Alfred Aboya played for every one of those teams. It's easy to love that aptitude for winning. You put a lineup with Aboya, James Keefe, Josh Shipp, Collison and any one of about 32 promising freshman guards on the floor, you've got yourself a very attractive team.

But the Bruins will be replacing: Their three best rebounders, low-post scorer (Kevin Love), only shot-blockers (Love and Lorenzo Mata-Real) and defensive stopper (Luc Richard Mbah a Moute). The Bruins still will play Ben Howland-style defense, which means they'll grind your teeth even if they can't block your shot. But unless they can make rapid progress with center recruit J'mison Morgan, they may lack the inside presence to win that last game or two.

Michigan State? These Spartans look more promising than last year--and last year's bunch managed a Sweet 16 appearance after an impressive second-round victory over Pitt. Turning the team over to sophomore Kalin Lucas will give the Spartans a definitive direction. Along with his classmates, Durrell Summers and Chris Allen, Lucas makes this perhaps the most athletic team Tom Izzo has coached.

Mike Miller's college hoops blog Keep an eye on Duke's Singler(ular) talent

There are legitimate questions, though, regarding whether this team's frontcourt can stand up to NCAA Tournament demands for six consecutive games. Goran Sutton showed signs with his excellent play against Pitt and Memphis, but he frequently gets into foul trouble and occasionally disappears. Even if Sutton delivers consistency, this team does not have a shot-blocking presence. It's not easy to win the title without one.

Louisville? You just know Rick Pitino's got one more big one in him, don't you? More than a decade has passed since he coached the greatest NCAA basketball team of the post-Wooden era, 1996 Kentucky, to his only championship. And now he's got — well, he's got a very promising team. But it's a team with still the same basic issue in place as existed one year ago.

Is the point guard play good enough to produce a title?

Will the point guard, whether it's Andre McGee or Edgar Sosa, need to lead the team as well as run it? There's not a David Padgett around to lead the Cardinals. Forward Terrence Williams certainly is a talker, but is he a leader?

And there's one more thing: The guy who needs to elevate this team from Elite Eight level to three more huge victories, Earl Clark, averaged 11 points last year. That's not going to get it done. If he doesn't have another five to seven per game in him, the Cards will not catch Carolina.

So there's the predicament. It's either go with the predictable or the improbable. If you've got any better ideas, pipe up.

MORE FROM COLLEGE BASKETBALL

College basketball Section Front

Mark your calendar for UNC-Duke Expert: Can Carolina go unbeaten? It's possible No. 14 Xavier not as perfect as its record Miami McClinton cleared to play against Kentucky Beyond the Arc: Stardom should await Singler Kentucky forward released from hospital LSU's Garrett Green to redshirt '08-09 season Odds Game matchups Injuries   College basketball Section Front   Add College basketball headlines to your news reader: