John Walters

Oklahoma State might be the sixth-best team in the nation — the just-released BCS standings seem to believe so — but unless the Cowboys can demonstrate that they are one of the two best teams in the Big 12, a date in one of the five premier bowls in college football will elude them this season.

Just as every state in the union sends no more than two senators to Congress no matter its size, no conference can have more than two representatives in the BCS bowl series. That means that as jubilant as students in Stillwater (or Lubbock) might be right now, their school (or Texas Tech, which is rated No. 8) has less of a chance of playing in a BCS bowl than No. 18 Georgia Tech.

In fact, unless the Cowboys or Red Raiders upset No. 1 and fellow Big 12 South rival Texas in the next two weeks, then two-loss Big 12 North foes Kansas and Missouri are closer to a BCS bid than they are. That two-team limit, a staple of the BCS charter, guarantees that at least three of the top 10 teams listed in the Sunday’s inaugural BCS standings will not qualify for a BCS bowl — even though 10 slots are available.

The Big 12 has four schools — Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State — and automatically half of that group will be pared. The SEC has three schools — Alabama, Florida and Georgia — and at least one, if not two, of those programs will find themselves BCS-busted.

So whom does it pay to be right now? The loser of next Saturday’s Penn State-Ohio State game, as long as that team wins out, will probably secure a BCS bid. The ACC, Big East and Pac-10 will each almost assuredly only send its conference champions.

If you’ve been doing the math, that’s nine schools (2 Big 12 + 2 SEC + 2 Big Ten + 1 + 1 + 1 = 9). Who is the 10th school most likely to garner an at-large bid? That remains as wide-open as the region of the country where most of this year’s at-large powers are located.

TCU’s only loss was at then-No. 1 Oklahoma. If the Horned Frogs win out, including a Thursday night contest at unbeaten Utah in early November, they will put themselves at the head of this class. Having ended the nation’s longest winning streak not once (BYU, 16 games) but twice (Utah, 10 games) in the same season will abet their cause.

If Utah wins that game, however, and goes on to an undefeated season, the Utes should play in their second BCS bowl in five seasons.

Then there’s Boise State. If Utah beats TCU but loses to BYU, and the Broncos go undefeated, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl darlings could vault past a one-loss Cougar team into the BCS series.

Tulsa and Ball State are both still unbeaten, but are long shots. Then again, the Golden Hurricane are averaging nearly eight more points per game (56.17) than any team in the country. Simply for the curiosity factor, no bowl could go wrong inviting them.

And finally — we can already feel you cringing — if 4-2 Notre Dame goes 5-1 in its second half of the season, the Irish would be BCS-bowl eligible. To do so Notre Dame would likely have to beat Top 25 opponents Pittsburgh and Boston College on consecutive Saturdays. You’re already cheering "Let’s go, Pitt!" aren’t you?

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