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Ovechkin's confidence, and offense, will return

Other observations a quarter of the way through the season

Image: Alex Ovechkin
Once Alex Ovechkin gets more shots, his confidence will return, writes NHL Expert Kevin Dupont.
Ross D. Franklin / AP
ASK THE NHL EXPERT
By Kevin Dupont
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 12:08 a.m. ET Nov. 12, 2008

Kevin Dupont
Some picked up pieces, fragmented thoughts and shots off the crossbar here now that the first quarter of the 2008-'09 NHL season has taken shape:

  • Caps superstar Alex Ovechkin, only 23, needed a few days to return to Russia to see his ailing grandfather, and his production (3-7-10 through his first dozen games) was in a funk as the end of the first quarter approached. He'll get it going, once his game-to-game shot totals begin to increase.

He fired only 56 shots on net in those first 12 games. Last season, en route to connecting for a league-leading 65 goals, he unloaded 446 times in 82 games. When AO is shooting, and shooting a lot, he is more confident (along with his skating), and with confidence comes goals. Even with this slow start, ink him in right now for 50 goals, or I turn in my kangaroo leather Tacks to Goodwill.

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  • Nothing wrong with the Sharks' start. If they maintain their pace (almost impossible), they easily will surpass last season's franchise record of 108 points and could press the Canadiens for the all-time mark of most points in a season (132, 1976-'77).

Oddest part of all is, their franchise centerpiece, Joe Thornton, spent the first six weeks on a pace for 67 points (roughly half of the 125 points he collected in his MVP season of 2005-'06). It's a more balanced offensive attack for the Sharks, with Patrick Marleau, Ryane Clowe and Devin Setoguchi pacing the goal-scoring.

  • Sharks winger Jonathan Cheechoo looks absolutely lost. He led the league with 56 goals in 05-'06. He might not score more than 15-20 times this season, after dipping to a paltry 23 in 2007-'08. Question of the day: who has a worse stick, Cheechoo or David Duval?
  • Great work by Vancouver captain Roberto Luongo, posting a league-leading five shutouts in his first 14 outings. All in all, though, way too many zeroes across the league. Through the first 212 games this season, 17 goalies (including Luongo) had their names on 26 shutouts. Wasn't this going to be the easier-to-score season of 2008-'09? Someone better resend that memo to Luongo, whose career-high for shutouts in a season is 7. Over the last 40 years, no one has had more shutouts than the 15 Tony Esposito recorded with the 1969-'70 Blackhawks. The all-time mark: 22, George Hainsworth, Montreal, 1928-29, when it was a 44-game regular season.
  • All the (other) experts who had the Leafs finishing dead last in the Eastern Conference please raise your hands, too. Uncle Harold's orphans aren't going to run off with a Cup this season. They likely won't secure a playoff berth. But at least they're fun to watch, and foster a sense that they are building for the future. Really. Especially stud defenseman Luke Schenn, among the early rookie-of-the-year candidates.
  • League GMs will meet again in March, and the bet here is that they'll vote in favor of a Larry Pleau (Blues Sr. VP and GM) initiative, put on the table in October, to change the ruling on delayed-penalty calls. As the rule stands, referees blow the whistle as soon as the ''offending'' team has gained possession of the puck. Under Pleau's plan, the offending team, on offenses committed in its own zone, would have to move the puck out over its defensive blue line.

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In theory, this would build in more action, allowing more time for the team on the attack to pull its goalie in favor of an extra skater. Overall, a subtle and fun change. Look for the GMs to send it over to the Board of Governors for final approval in June.

  • Watched a video the other day of Stars goalie Marty Turco working out, standing up (somewhat precariously) on one of those huge inflatable exercise balls, while at the same time trading catches with a tennis ball. For the record, he was not wearing skates. No doubt this somehow translates to being a better puck stopper. If the Stars make it to Game 7 of the Cup finals, sure hope he doesn't get called for a foot foul.
  • If you know an out-of-work air-traffic controller, have him or her contact Brian Lawton, c/o of the Tampa Bay Lightning. He's always got at least 2-3 of his Bolts ready for takeoff.
  • Are the Rangers this good? The easy answer is, good enough to land a top 4 seed in the East, even with dependable forwards Scott Gomez and Chris Drury each an uncharacteristic minus-5 by mid-November.

They've spread the offense around since Jaromir Jagr's departure (now in Russia) and ex-Senators backliner Wade Redden has looked more like the confident puck mover that he was for years in Ottawa before he slumped in 2007-'08. Still wish they had found cap room to bring back elder statesman Brendan Shanahan, especially for power-play duty.

  • The shootout is a gimmick, but a gimmick that is here to stay, nonetheless. Still can't understand why the players won't take the ''risk'' of removing their helmets during the one-on-one sessions.

They had that option, out of the lockout, but feared an aggressive pokecheck by a goalie could send a shooter careening into the boards, causing potential serious injury. Craziness. If a shooter is that unskilled, or unsure, tell him to enroll in Zamboni Driving night school. He's in the wrong line of work.


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