Mike Chiappetta • E-mail

LAS VEGAS - Just over 15 years ago, the Ultimate Fighting Championship was born on a cold night in Denver, Colorado. Conceived as a way for the Gracie family to essentially market their then-exotic style of jiu-jitsu, the event drew about 3,000 people to the arena and about 90,000 pay-per-view buys, according to various published numbers.

Royce Gracie won the inaugural event, submitting all three of his opponents, including a young Ken Shamrock in the semifinals.

One of those watching from home was the current UFC President, Dana White, who was then a 24-year-old living in Boston.

“We went over to this karate instructor’s house and watched the first UFC. And much like everyone else, we were like, ‘Holy ****, is this real?’ he said.

A few years later, White and childhood friends Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta bought the company, and on Saturday night, they expect to have the biggest night in the organization’s 15-year history. The company expects to draw 1.2 million pay-per-view buys, which would break the record of 1.05 million, set by the UFC 66 main event featuring Tito Ortiz vs. Chuck Liddell.

So how do they determine that number? White says the company has “mad scientists” who crunch data and are very accurate with their estimates.

“It took us a long time to figure out how to do this, but we come damn close to nailing the number,” he said. “Boxing’s been doing it for years. They get these guys paid before the fight because they know exactly what they’d do on PPV buys. There’s a formula to it, a secret. We figured it out. We should be very close. I’m predicting 1.2. Maybe a little over, or a little under, but we’ll be in that range.”

The event should be the first of three blockbuster shows from November through January. In December, the company is hosting UFC 92, which features a light-heavyweight title fight between Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans, an interim heavyweight title match between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir, and an anticipated fight between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Wanderlei Silva.

Then in January, they boast a champion vs. champion superfight pitting lightweight kingpin B.J. Penn vs. welterweight belt-holder Georges St. Pierre. If Penn wins, he will be the first fighter to simultaneously hold two UFC titles. But then the question becomes, How does he defend two belts at the same time?

“I don’t know,” White admitted. “We’ll see after the GSP fight. I’ll deal with it as it comes.”

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