Recession-proof? Maybe not this time
Gambling, smoking, even premium television could suffer in this downturn
![]() | Think gambling is recession-proof? You might not want to bet on that. |
Isaac Brekken / AP file |

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Americans, the thinking went, might cut back on big expenditures like a new car or a new couch in an economic downturn, but they’d still feel justified in treating themselves to a frothy coffee drink when they were having to deprive themselves of so much else.
That sort of conventional wisdom was thrown out the window about a year ago, when Starbucks conceded that the once high-flying company was losing its footing. It has since been forced to close stores and lay off workers as profits have plummeted.
While Starbucks certainly has made its share of missteps, it’s clear that part of its problem is simply that more and more Americans began to question whether they could really afford a $4 coffee drink when that money could be going to more pressing needs like gas, food or heating bills.
Starbucks isn’t the only company that could be hit unexpectedly hard in this downturn. As the country faces its worst financial crisis in decades, experts say sectors such as gambling, cigarettes and entertainment — all once considered relatively immune to economic hardship — could start feeling the pinch of the country’s current belt-tightening.
“The things that have been recession-proof in the past are proving to be punished by this recession,” said Burt P. Flickinger III, managing director of Strategic Resource Group.
That’s partly because this downturn — which has not yet technically been declared a recession — could end up being much worse than others in recent memory. But it also comes as more Americans are finding themselves with little if any savings, and less access to credit, leaving them with less money to spend on the escapist splurges that might otherwise have fared better in a downturn.
“The consumer is more cash- and credit-constrained than any time during the last four decades,” Flickinger said.
Flickinger also thinks the companies behind those sectors share some of the blame, because they aggressively pushed up prices for everything from movie tickets to premium television during the good times. That, in turn, is making it harder for some Americans to justify an increasingly premium TV package, or night at the movies, in downtimes.
The troubles for companies such as Starbucks also could be exacerbated by the fact that this economic downturn has included widespread difficulties in traditionally well-paying areas such as financial services.
“Some people that probably thought they were largely invulnerable to a recession are finding themselves vulnerable,” said Ken Mayland, president of the forecasting firm ClearView Economics.
Although it is still too early to say how much these sectors will be hurt by the downturn, some troubling signs are emerging.
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Even — or especially — when times are tough, the common assumption has been that people will continue to gamble for relief and the hope of striking it rich. But Keith Schwer, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, notes that that type of thinking was based on the more shallow recessions such as the ones in 1991 and 2001.
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MGM Mirage reported an 8 percent dip in casino revenue in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, and the company halted development of a new property in Atlantic City, N.J., citing the weak economy and tight credit conditions. Harrah’s Entertainment swung to a loss in the same period, and also blamed its woes on economic upheaval.
For Las Vegas specifically, Schwer said part of the problem is that gaming is now much more widespread in the United States, meaning that people can gamble locally without the expense of a trip to Vegas. Many gaming companies also were in the midst of expansion when the economy started to turn, meaning stiffer competition.
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