Scholar's protest guide offered to Iranians

Srdja Popovic, one of the founders of Serbia's student resistance, said Iranian protesters have to be prepared for the long haul and come up with "low-risk" tactics. He pointed to calls on Twitter for protesters to turn on car headlights and stand across from security services holding the Quran as a good start, but said they need to do more.

He lauded some of Iranian protest tactics: wearing green — the symbolic color of Islam — and chanting slogans from the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"You can't export nonviolent struggles against non-democratic regimes. Cultural and situational environments are too different," said Popovic, who now runs the Belgrade-based Center for Applied Nonviolent Action and Strategies, or Canvas. "But the principles are the same."

The refusal of security forces to crack down on protesters was critical to the success of the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia, but the cohesion and harsh tactics of Iran's security forces raise doubts about the future of Mousavi's "green movement."

"Ukraine's ruling elite was split apart and opposition activists faced no danger," said Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky. "Violence and repression, lack of access to mass media and unity of the ruling elite leave little chance for Iranian protesters."

Thousands of Ukrainians protested for days in 2004 to force the government to hold a new presidential vote after the incumbent's victory was marred by fraud allegations. The pro-Western challenger, Viktor Yushchenko, eventually prevailed.

Analyst Soso Tsintadze in Georgia, where protesters forced President Eduard Shevardnadze to resign in 2003 and brought a pro-Western opposition leader to power, also equally pessimistic.

"Iranian leaders are no Shevardnadze, whose power was really weak," Tsintadze said. "They are strong people who control the situation, and the military did not rebel, while in Shevardnadze's case the mutiny in the military was a crucial step."

Mousavi has refused to give up, however, and has urged his backers to maintain protests but avoid violence.

"The seed of change is obviously growing among the Iranian youth," said Popovic, the Serbian activist. "It will be impossible for conservatives to cancel this process, even if they can suppress actual protests and install Ahmadinejad as president for another term."

Lech Walesa, the famed leader of Poland's Solidarity movement and the country's first democratically elected president following Communist rule, counseled perseverance.

"Lead your struggle in a wise way but do not hit your heads against the wall," said Walesa. "If not this time, you will win next time."

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