Economy grows at best pace in 2 years

updated 2:38 p.m. ET Oct. 29, 2009

WASHINGTON - The U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. It's the strongest signal yet that the economy has entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended.

President Barack Obama hailed the data, saying the country has "come a long way" since early this year.

In remarks prepared for a small business group, Obama said he believes the new figures are "an affirmation that this recession is abating and the steps we've taken have made a difference." The economy had shrunk by 6.4 percent in the first quarter.

The president cautioned, however, that "we have a long way to go to fully restore our economy."  

Many analysts also expect the pace of the budding recovery to be plodding due to rising unemployment and continuing difficulties by both consumers and businesses to secure loans.

"This welcome milestone is just another step, and we still have a long road to travel until the economy is fully recovered," said Christina Romer, President Barack Obama's chief economist. "It will take sustained, robust ... growth to bring the unemployment rate down substantially. Such a decline in unemployment is, of course, what we are all working to achieve."

The much-awaited turnaround reported Thursday by the Commerce Department ended the streak of four straight quarters of contracting economic activity, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947.

It also marked the first increase since the spring of 2008, when the economy experienced a short-lived uptick in growth.

The third-quarter's performance — the strongest since right before the country fell into recession in December 2007 — was slightly better than the 3.3 percent growth rate economists expected.

Armed with cash from government support programs, consumers led the rebound in the third quarter, snapping up cars and homes.

Consumer spending on big-ticket manufactured goods soared at an annualized rate of 22.3 percent in the third quarter, the most since the end of 2001. The jump largely reflected car purchases spurred by the government's "Cash for Clunkers" program that offered a rebate of up to $4,500 to buy new cars and trade in old gas guzzlers.

The housing market also turned a corner in the summer. Spending on housing projects jumped at an annualized pace of 23.4 percent, the largest jump since 1986. It was the first time since the end of 2005 that spending on housing was positive. Purchases of home furnishings and appliances also added to economic growth.

The government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers supported the housing rebound. Congress is considering extending the credit, which expires on Nov. 30.

The collapse of the housing market led the country into the recession. Rotten mortgage securities spiraled into a banking crisis. Home foreclosures surged. The sector's return to good health is a crucial ingredient to a sustained economic recovery.

A top concern is whether the recovery can continue after government supports are gone.

Many economists predict economic activity won't grow as much in the months ahead as the bracing impact of Obama's $787 billion package of increased government spending and tax cuts fades.

The National Association for Business Economics thinks growth will slow to a 2.4 percent pace in the current October-December quarter. It expects a 2.5 percent growth rate in the first three months of next year, although other economists believe the pace will be closer to 1 percent.

Romer, in remarks last week said the government's stimulus spending already had its biggest impact and probably won't contribute to significant growth next year.

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