Which Clooney film will earn an Oscar nod?

"Bridesmaids" — in or out? Brad Pitt — in or out? Rooney Mara — in or out? George Clooney — in and out?

The Academy Award nominations are set to be announced Tuesday morning, and undaunted by our so-so performance at the Golden Globes (we called eight of the 14 movie winners), we're right back with a new set of stone-cold locks, otherwise known as guesses.

Let the nomination speculation begin:

The nominees will (probably) be ...

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Best Picture: "The Artist," "Bridesmaids," "The Descendants," "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo," "The Help," "Hugo," "Midnight in Paris," "Moneyball"

Sorry, but thanks for playing: Clooney's "The Ides of March," Steven Spielberg's "War Horse" — and 2011's other 200-plus eligible films. FYI: As a reminder, the field will consist of anywhere from five to 10 nominees. The thinking here, based on how the guild nominations went, is that the magic number will be eight.

Best Actress: Viola Davis, "The Help," Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady," Tilda Swinton, "We Need to Talk About Kevin," Charlize Theron, "Young Adult," Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn."

Sorry, but thanks for playing: "Albert Nobbs'" Glenn Close, "Dragon Tattoo's" Rooney Mara and "The Artist's" Bérénice Bejo, who, despite her lead-actress nod at the so-called British Oscars, we're going to say doesn't rate — in this category. FYI: Theron gets the edge over the on-the-bubble competition because Diablo Cody, like Woody Allen, writes nominations as much as she writes characters.

Best Actor: George Clooney, "The Descendants," Jean Dujardin, "The Artist," Michael Fassbender, "Shame," Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," Brad Pitt, "Moneyball."

Sorry, but thanks for playing: "J. Edgar's" Leonardo DiCaprio and "A Better Life's" Demian Bichir. FYI: It only looks like we cribbed from the BAFTA nominations. Truth is, we're skittish about departing from the SAG script, but especially can't see DiCaprio getting in for a film with zero momentum.

Best Supporting Actress: Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist," Jessica Chastain, "The Help," Marion Cotillard, "Midnight in Paris" Octavia Spencer, "The Help," Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants."

Sorry, but thanks for playing: "Albert Nobbs'" Janet McTeer and Mia Wasikowska, and, yikes, "Bridesmaids'" Melissa McCarthy. FYI: One, very funny movies (and the very funny people in them) get little Oscar respect. Two, actors in Allen films, comedies though they are, get a lot of respect. Add 'em up, and McCarthy is out, and Cotillard, as her beloved movie's most Academy-friendly option, is in.

P.S.: Streep's shout-out to Wasikowska during "The Iron Lady" star's Golden Globes speech might have swung some votes the younger actress' way had Oscar voting not closed the Friday before. (And, yes, we know, Streep name-checked Wasikowska's other noteworthy 2011 movie, "Jane Eyre," but same difference — the pub came too late, unless, that is, Streep was lobbying for the Aussie behind-the-scenes.

And, by the by, if Streep was talking up Wasikowska to her Academy friends, then we take back everything we said about Theron in the Best Actress race, and we hereby give that slot to Wasikowska. How's that for conviction?

SNUB ALERT: Angelina Jolie, no; Christian Bale, yes

Best Supporting Actor: Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn," Albert Brooks, "Drive," Jonah Hill, "Moneyball," Ben Kingsley, "Hugo," Christopher Plummer, "Beginners."

Sorry, but thanks for playing: "J. Edgar's" Armie Hammer, "The Ides of March's" Philip Seymour Hoffman and "Warrior's" Nick Nolte. FYI: What we said about DiCaprio? The same goes, unfortunately, for Hammer.